Probably Football

Matches

Primera B (Colombia)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Tigres FC vs Real Cartagena

  1. Tigres FC32%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Real Cartagena37%

0.95 expected goals for Tigres FC

1.17 expected goals for Real Cartagena

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Tigres FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Tigres FC attack−40%
  3. Real Cartagena defence+5%

Expected goals0.95

Real Cartagena

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Cartagena attack+2%
  2. Tigres FC defence−16%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.