Probably Football

Matches

Primera B (Colombia)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Envigado vs Ind. Yumbo

  1. Envigado45%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Ind. Yumbo24%

1.14 expected goals for Envigado

0.88 expected goals for Ind. Yumbo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Envigado

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Envigado attack−17%
  3. Ind. Yumbo defence−8%

Expected goals1.14

Ind. Yumbo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ind. Yumbo attack−21%
  2. Envigado defence−18%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.