Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Real Ávila vs Unionistas de Salamanca

  1. Real Ávila24%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Unionistas de Salamanca61%

1.32 expected goals for Real Ávila

1.57 expected goals for Unionistas de Salamanca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real Ávila

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real Ávila attack−2%
  3. Unionistas de Salamanca defence−11%

Expected goals1.32

Unionistas de Salamanca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Unionistas de Salamanca attack+16%
  2. Real Ávila defence0%

Expected goals1.57

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.