Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 15:00

Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna

  1. Auriense14%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Deportivo La Coruna71%

0.90 expected goals for Auriense

1.63 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Auriense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Auriense attack−3%
  3. Deportivo La Coruna defence−38%

Expected goals0.90

Deportivo La Coruna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo La Coruna attack+27%
  2. Auriense defence−6%

Expected goals1.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.