Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Antequera vs Águilas

  1. Antequera35%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Águilas49%

1.47 expected goals for Antequera

1.25 expected goals for Águilas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Antequera

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Antequera attack+1%
  3. Águilas defence−3%

Expected goals1.47

Águilas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Águilas attack−8%
  2. Antequera defence+1%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.