Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Guarany de Sobral vs América PE

  1. Guarany de Sobral28%
  2. Draw28%
  3. América PE44%

1.40 expected goals for Guarany de Sobral

1.68 expected goals for América PE

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guarany de Sobral

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guarany de Sobral attack−4%
  3. América PE defence−4%

Expected goals1.40

América PE

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. América PE attack−2%
  2. Guarany de Sobral defence+26%

Expected goals1.68

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.