Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Friday 30 October, 07:55

Dubai United vs Khorfakkan

  1. Dubai United40%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Khorfakkan37%

2.00 expected goals for Dubai United

1.75 expected goals for Khorfakkan

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dubai United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dubai United attack+13%
  3. Khorfakkan defence+18%

Expected goals2.00

Khorfakkan

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Khorfakkan attack−5%
  2. Dubai United defence+36%

Expected goals1.75

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.2 for Dubai United and 4.2 for Khorfakkan

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Dubai United and 2.1 for Khorfakkan

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.3 expected

14.2 for Dubai United and 11.2 for Khorfakkan

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

20.2 expected

9.9 for Dubai United and 10.3 for Khorfakkan

  1. Over 20.5 fouls46%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls31%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls18%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.