Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Hoek vs Sparta Nijkerk

  1. Hoek45%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Sparta Nijkerk40%

1.65 expected goals for Hoek

1.31 expected goals for Sparta Nijkerk

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hoek

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hoek attack+10%
  3. Sparta Nijkerk defence−1%

Expected goals1.65

Sparta Nijkerk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sparta Nijkerk attack+23%
  2. Hoek defence−22%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.