Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 15:00

Groningen vs Emmen

  1. Groningen78%
  2. Draw3%
  3. Emmen19%

3.25 expected goals for Groningen

1.05 expected goals for Emmen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Groningen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Groningen attack+72%
  3. Emmen defence+25%

Expected goals3.25

Emmen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Emmen attack−2%
  2. Groningen defence−21%

Expected goals1.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals76%
  4. Over 3.5 goals62%
  5. Over 4.5 goals43%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.0 for Groningen and 4.7 for Emmen

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Groningen and 2.2 for Emmen

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

26.7 expected

13.4 for Groningen and 13.3 for Emmen

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.1 expected

10.8 for Groningen and 11.4 for Emmen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.