Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

De Treffers vs Heracles

  1. De Treffers66%
  2. Draw7%
  3. Heracles27%

2.71 expected goals for De Treffers

1.26 expected goals for Heracles

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

De Treffers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. De Treffers attack+81%
  3. Heracles defence−1%

Expected goals2.71

Heracles

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Heracles attack+36%
  2. De Treffers defence−32%

Expected goals1.26

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals73%
  4. Over 3.5 goals56%
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.