Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Nacional Asuncion43%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Sportivo Trinidense27%

1.31 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion

0.89 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nacional Asuncion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nacional Asuncion attack+52%
  3. Sportivo Trinidense defence−43%

Expected goals1.31

Sportivo Trinidense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sportivo Trinidense attack+52%
  2. Nacional Asuncion defence−57%

Expected goals0.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

5.8 for Nacional Asuncion and 5.4 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Nacional Asuncion and 2.4 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

29.0 expected

14.7 for Nacional Asuncion and 14.4 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

22.2 expected

10.8 for Nacional Asuncion and 11.4 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.