Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia

  1. Sportivo Ameliano26%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Olimpia46%

0.96 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano

1.49 expected goals for Olimpia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sportivo Ameliano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sportivo Ameliano attack+17%
  3. Olimpia defence−46%

Expected goals0.96

Olimpia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Olimpia attack+71%
  2. Sportivo Ameliano defence−36%

Expected goals1.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.9 expected

5.4 for Sportivo Ameliano and 5.5 for Olimpia

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners60%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.8 for Sportivo Ameliano and 2.7 for Olimpia

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

29.7 expected

12.8 for Sportivo Ameliano and 16.9 for Olimpia

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

22.1 expected

10.9 for Sportivo Ameliano and 11.3 for Olimpia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.