Thursday 29 October, 12:00
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
- Al-Nassr79%
- Draw15%
- Al Kholood6%
2.92 expected goals for Al-Nassr
0.84 expected goals for Al Kholood
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al-Nassr
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al-Nassr attack+110%
- Al Kholood defence−8%
Expected goals2.92
Al Kholood
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al Kholood attack+23%
- Al-Nassr defence−50%
Expected goals0.84
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Over 3.5 goals52%
- Over 4.5 goals32%
- Both teams score56%
- Al-Nassr or draw94%
- Draw or Al Kholood21%
- No draw85%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.4 expected
5.7 for Al-Nassr and 4.7 for Al Kholood
- Over 8.5 corners65%
- Over 9.5 corners55%
- Over 10.5 corners45%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.4 for Al-Nassr and 2.5 for Al Kholood
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
26.4 expected
16.2 for Al-Nassr and 10.2 for Al Kholood
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
21.6 expected
10.0 for Al-Nassr and 11.6 for Al Kholood
- Over 20.5 fouls57%
- Over 22.5 fouls42%
- Over 24.5 fouls28%
Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.