Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Thursday 29 October, 12:00

Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC

  1. Al-Fayha35%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Al-Faisaly FC40%

1.44 expected goals for Al-Fayha

1.49 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Fayha

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Fayha attack+10%
  3. Al-Faisaly FC defence−13%

Expected goals1.44

Al-Faisaly FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Faisaly FC attack+40%
  2. Al-Fayha defence−22%

Expected goals1.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.8 for Al-Fayha and 4.2 for Al-Faisaly FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Al-Fayha and 2.1 for Al-Faisaly FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

24.8 expected

13.7 for Al-Fayha and 11.1 for Al-Faisaly FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

23.3 expected

12.8 for Al-Fayha and 10.5 for Al-Faisaly FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.